The only thing i have left is
This has happened with damn near every other MMO game out there.
I played EQ, DAoC and Shadowbane at launch and in all of these people were complaining, they claimed there was a high turnover rate, everybody hated the game and it would never last. Of course we all know how untrue this is, at least with EQ and DAoC.
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True. Which is why I said turnover is the nature of all online games. However since the devs decided to put those nice population dots on the server select screen it allows us to get a rough idea of the playerbase. What I'm seeing today is barely half of what I saw a month after the games launch. As I said, only SOE knows the real numbers, but if those population meters are somewhat accurate then there is room for concern IMO.
And comparing EQ/DAoC to PS in this regard points back to your argument -- PS is a FPS, not an RPG. RPG's have this thing called content that tend to keep people around much longer. MMPORPGs have been around for years, so the "pay to play" model for them has been accepted. "Pay to play" is new to the FPS genre, and if you want people to continue to pay then you probably need to bring some good stuff to the table other than player numbers.
The major problem I see right now is population. After the launch of the game you could find big battles anywhere. It was then you saw true fun and potential of the game. But now with the severe drop in player numbers you basically have this 3rd man out game.
Team A and Team B get a huge war going on a continent. They pop lock it. Since the population is low this pop lock war hogs up the majority of Team A and Team B's players. Leaving Team C with hardly anyone to fight.
This happens on Markov pretty much every night. TR and NC lock up Forseral while the Vanu go around capping empty bases. But when the population was higher you generally had these huge wars on several continents. 2-4 continents would be pop locked. When is the last time you saw 2 continents pop locked? Now ONE pop lock continent generally hogs up most of the servers players.