Population Density: Guestimations

[Tapman]

CAUTION: MATH AND WORDS AHEAD.

Before I begin, let me first request clarification from a developer. My calculations below are based on my understanding that each CONTINENT would be able to host thousands of players, meaning a minimum of 667 players per faction. The PC Gamer article indicated that it would be 666 v 666 v 666 per SERVER, meaning those numbers would be spread across four continents. I really hope that my assumption is correct, if not then I'll have to re-do my calculations. [/Caveat]

The AGN broadcast and lots of folks have discussed how nobody really has any idea what gameplay will be like once the populations approach the starting maximum, we've seen a few demo scenarios that looked roughly scripted but Higby even stated that they have a hard time knowing how the dynamics will change when the battlefield fills up. There is concern over the "Following" system as Planetside has what is described as the "Zerg" and the few coordinated outfits that really make shit happen. My goal was to try to get a more accurate picture of what the numbers will truly scale up towards, based on the mathematical parameters given.

EDIT: Apparently the math and words below needed a more concise summary. TL;DR: everyone needs to chill the fuck out and wait until Beta to see if it's too spaced out/crowded, and try not to focus on the commanding system becoming a popularity contest based on politics because results won't lie.



My first step was to get estimated distances of the actual front lines. I counted the number of edges each empire had with an enemy on the other side based on the GDC map that we saw, their totals are as follows with T=(length of one hex edge):

VS: 50T
TR: 40T
NC (Main): 42T
NC (Secondary): 26T

In order to find out the actual distance, we have to find T. We solve for it using the equation for the area of a single hexagon, the total area of the continent, and the approximate number of total hexes on the continent. I attempted to count the number of raw hexes each empire controlled from the GDC footage, the VS may have more because we never saw a full view of the north end of the continent but I approximated that there weren't too many more as you can see the VS foothold. My counts were as follows:

NC: 112
VS: 90-95
TR: 96

This gives us 298-303 total hexes for this continent, I rounded that to 300 as we aren't working with that many significant figures. The total (assumed) area of this continent is 64 square kilometers, so therefore:

64km^2/300 hexes = 0.213 square km per hex

Plug this directly into the equation to find the distance of one edge of a hex:

(3/2)*(3^0.5)*T^2 = 0.213

T = 0.286km

Plug T into the front-line distances I noted earlier, and you get the following:

VS: 14.3km
TR: 11.4km
NC (Main): 12.0km
NC (Secondary): 7.4km

I wanted to create a mathematically "Normal" scenario where you have every single soldier at their front lines either attacking or defending with as equal distribution as possible. Assuming each empire has 667 people on the continent, the front-line density is as follows:

VS: 46.6 players/km
TR: 58.3 players/km
NC: 34.3 players/km

Breaking it down even further, you get:

VS: 13.3 players/edge
TR: 16.7 players/edge
NC: 9.8 players/edge

At first glance, these numbers seem low. Looking at the map though, you will note that the contestable edges of hexes varies from one to four, one generally being on the edges of the map and four being towards the middle. Not only that, but there will be times when you have a large hex group that is mostly surrounded, i.e. the southernmost VS territory has 13 edges that are immediately adjacent to enemy territory, meaning that territory would have about 173 players defending it. Another interesting figure to look at is the average distance between friendlies along that front line:

VS: 21.5m
TR: 17.1m
NC: 29.2m

We have been told that 0-20m is close range, 20m-100m is medium range, and 100m+ is long range, assuming you are on foot. I can only imagine the madness that it will be when you throw vehicles and MAX units into the mix.

What I take away from this is that the "Zerg" will most likely become an obsolete and easily countered strategy. It became the standard in Planetside because there were preset pathways to enter continents and often times there were few bases that could be targeted even after you managed to get a foothold on a new continent. In Planetside 2 there will be plenty of fights with hundreds of players on each side in the larger hex groups but any leader who relies on having the biggest swarm will ultimately end up hurting their empire overall, a check and balance to the potential abuse of raw numbers.

Feel free to poke holes in or make fun of my math. I promise to re-do it if I get more specific numbers from a Dev and/or if anyone finds errors or something I didn't notice/account for.