Man Made Climate Change

[Rbstr]

Firefly....and really...half the country that has no idea what they're "debating" about:
Ahem.

GLOBAL CLIMATE DOES NOT MEAN THE SAME THING AS LOCAL WEATHER.

Thank you,
Person who has environmental chemistry and modeling experience.

The snow in Texas or Florida or where-the-fuck-ever does not in any way provide evidence against global warming.

Global average temperature doesn't mean you can't have some extremely cold, as long as there's more extremely hot elsewhere. Do remember the southern hemisphere is in the middle of summer now....and the northern hemisphere just had a very hot summer.
Though, we actually have a theory about the current spat of severe winters in development: The jet stream typically provides a barrier to the arctic air attempting to come south from the pole. But the jet stream is weakening, presumably because of different surface temperature differentials (which have bearing on pressure differentials that drive the winds). This allows arctic air to move south more readily. Yes, that's just a theory, but it makes sense. There's no real way to test on systems like the earths except for extremely complicated computer models, and those require much more funding that we're often willing to give (though recently things have been better).


Asides from that bit:
There is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that we, human beings, have significantly impacted the atmospheric concentrations of CO2. We've more than doubled them in a century. The source of the "new" CO2 is us, not natural processes, we've got good records.
Even if we stopped all CO2 emissions tomorrow it would be on the order of centuries before atmospheric CO2 went back to pre-industrial levels, and even longer for oceanic concentrations.

We also know for a fact that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. More of it means less heat escapes our atmosphere.

Additionally, we know for a fact that the earth is currently warming, without any attention paid to the cause.

The debate on climate change, in scientist circles, mostly has to do with two things:
How much warmer a given amount of CO2 makes things.
What the warming will do to global weather patterns.
NOT if it's happening or not.

This should be very concerning because there are a number of situations where we hit CO2 runaway. That is at certain, fuzzily-known CO2 concentrations the ability for the Earth to sequester it naturally gets FUBARed. For instance, higher CO2 means more acidic oceans. At a certain pH shellfish can no longer make shells (this already happens in some places). Shells are make of calcium carbonate, which makes them one of the largest sinks of CO2 that exist. So once we reach that point, CO2 concentrations will go up even faster.

The fun is that when you look at the dynamics, its very possible we're beyond that point of no return, and nothing we do will keep us from hitting the "oh shit we done goofed" CO2 threshold.

I can post a couple of book chapters on climate modeling if you guys really want to see it. Unfortunately none of the modeling programs will work because I can't distribute the installer. They also require some differential equations knowledge to really understand.

Now, is Global warming "bad"? That's an entirely different question. "Bad" is more likely than not. It could actually expand the amount of arable land. A benefit in the face of a rapidly growing population.

To sum it up in a sentence: People should be extremely concerned about what we're doing to the atmosphere.

[DviddLeff]

Climate change is real, its happening, and has been happening since the Earth formed from rock and dust.

Are we causing it? I am not sure and even if we are there is no way we are going to stop polluting the way we do with India and China developing with their populations so large and everybody on the planet wanting cars, phones, TVs and cheap flights to somewhere fun. Not to mention every country agreeing to cut carbon emissions by whatever amount by the time they are no longer in office.

Unless we kill off BILLIONS of people or invent cold fusion we are screwed... unless oil runs out in 2025 as predicted and we stop polluting that way.

Either way, we have to deal with more extremes of weather, more desertification and lack of resources.

[Baneblade]

I have no doubt that climate change is real, but I have real doubts that we can cause it.

[Bags]

I heard there can't ever be temperature fluctuation with warming. It has to constantly increase in temperature in a linear fashion. Global warming = increase in average world temperature, not regional per se. So you could have a really cold winter, but it could still average out around the world as warming. I really do love the, "well it snowed a lot last winter, therefore there's no warming" argument.

[Rbstr]

Originally Posted by Sobekeus

I have no doubt that climate change is real, but I have real doubts that we can cause it.

You should consider the massive impact we have had on ecology, water chemistry and a multitude of other things. The ozone layer is a prime example of how we can mess with the atmosphere itself.

To think that we can't affect our climate run counter to nearly the entirety of human action. Nearly everything we've done effects the natural world somehow. Why is CO2 an exception?

As an example of semi-weather related human-based impacts: The "dust bowl" phenomenon was, at least in part, created by poor farming practices alone.
The Russians have nearly completely drained/evaporated the Aral sea causing massive environmental problems and even local weather pattern changes.

I feel like we should have learned by now that humans can, and will, do nearly anything that is physically possible. It's the great double edged sword we wield.

[DviddLeff]

Do I remember correctly that the countries that agreed to keep global averages below a certain temp by 2040 decided that the temperature to aim below was the tipping point?

0.1 degree over and the oceans release the carbon back into the atmosphere and we are screwed.

[Jonny]

Rbstrs first post hits the mark. There isn't really an argument if its happening and if its due to man. Just look at the amount of cars in the world, all the industry, the ships, planes, pc's, air con, coal plants, forest burning etc etc etc.

Its like having a steak in a plastic wrapped box ready to eat. As that steak goes mouldy and you see patches of mould grow, that bacteria releases gasses as it feeds on the meat. The pressure in the plastic wrapping increases and it bulges, then you pop it open and a release of nasty gas comes out ^^

When I flew back from the Mediterranean afew years back, flying over spain/france you see patches of sprawled human settlements interconnected by roads. These patches seem large and covering a lot of the countries surface. It made me think as it looks just like mould, producing gas and filling our plastic wrapping (atmosphere) with all sorts of gases.

Lets hope we don't have to throw out the earth!

[DviddLeff]

Fact of the matter is that humanity has survived ice ages in the past.

Things are going to change, drastically.

I am more concerned with our population rising too high and wars braking out over food producing territory, and other valuable resources, like, say, oil.

[Firefly]

Originally Posted by DviddLeff

Fact of the matter is that humanity has survived ice ages in the past.

Things are going to change, drastically.

I am more concerned with our population rising too high and wars braking out over food producing territory, and other valuable resources, like, say, oil.

I own lots and lots of guns. I also possess the skills necessary to use them, expertly. In the event of some sort of cataclysmic electro-magnetic pulse that kills off electronic devices, I can also use a sword.

And not the way a fat kid uses a fake katana.

[Peacemaker]

Originally Posted by Firefly

I own lots and lots of guns. I also possess the skills necessary to use them, expertly. In the event of some sort of cataclysmic electro-magnetic pulse that kills off electronic devices, I can also use a sword.

And not the way a fat kid uses a fake katana.

Here here. This redneck is ready for 'geddon too! I welcome a society destroying event. As a whole humanity is made up of idiots, theres too many of us, and the weak somehow survive, usually off the strong backs of the working class (wellfare), and our government has become a cesspool compared to the leaders we had only 70 years ago.

Unless the planet explodes, a dominate species takes over, or the atmosphere is removed humans will survive. But its not going to be the people who just cannot live without their coffee every morning, or couldn't hit a building with a shotgun. It will revert back to what it was in the past. Life will be hard.

Seems to me that people are so worried about this happening because they are going to lose the easy life. Im the kind of guy that looks at most of these people and think "When it happens you are going to die, and I am going to live. Why should I give a fuck?" Ill pack up the 4x4 trail truck, get supplies and take off for the deep woods.

We fucked up as a race, this is how nature intends to kick our ass.

[Coreolis]

Honestly, I don't know anything about global warming. I don't know the facts, the graphs, green house gases, none of it. I don't understand any of it. It could all be faked for all I know.

But, I believe in Global Warming and act like its real for one reason, This video. It is the most logical and reasonable video I've seen on the issue, and there really is NO reasonable and logical argument that you can make against it.


First one is good too but I like this one better

If you're too lazy to watch it (You really should watch it all the way through, not just until like, 4 minutes or something.), the theory is basically this:

If the people who believe in global warming are wrong, but we act on their ideas, worst case scenario is we all lose a lot of money (possibly) and maybe go through a worldwide depression because of investments into greener technology.

If the people who believe global warming Isn't true are wrong, worst case scenario is we all die due to the effects of global warming.

So, is it worth the risk?
Funny thing is, even if we did do something and avoided Global Warming, we'd never even know if it was ever true or not. So the people who said not to act would be all like "See, we were right all along!"

Its so much easier to be a lazy, greedy bastard in this world
Like the guy in the video says, we only get one shot at this, hope you guys are comfortable with your decisions.

Edit: @Firefly
We've been getting more snow because more water is evaporating as a result of the increased temperatures, resulting in much more precipitation. Namely, the huge snowfalls this year and last.

Winter is Winter, being 2 degrees warmer one year and still being below 32 doesn't mean its going to snow any less.

[Jonny]

Wow. I can't believe i watched that video through but I took your advice and did.

Its a positive message that will hopefully get through to the masses, and at least he's trying. Personally I found that video really patronizing and 'terrifyingly' obvious.

A better way would be to look up global warming on the internet and stay away from oil company funded organisations. Go for the science and try to understand that. Its not that hard to understand.

[321]

Originally Posted by Firefly

In the event of some sort of cataclysmic electro-magnetic pulse that kills off electronic devices, I can also use a sword

He's not kidding. Here is a video of Firefly preparing for this cataclysmic electro-magnetic pulse:

[Evilmp]

USA == awesome
Europe == suck

because of this statement we can conclude that climate changes, if any were to occur, would have a positive impact on the USA while encouraging anyone in EU to continue staying indoors sucking penis



this post contains all knowledge the average human requires concerning global warming. you're welcome.

[Traak]

Originally Posted by Firefly

Yes, nationwide. Every state in the nation (except Florida) had snowstorms, and then Florida got a bit of snow so it was every state. Though I doubt they included Hawai'i, so most probably they meant the contiguous US.

Hawaii has snow, each and every year. It's why there's skiing on Mauna Kea in the winter, each and every year.