No-Lose BlackJack Theory

ChewyLSB · 2004-09-13, 05:20 PM

Yeah, I know, another get rich quick scheme? It'll never work. Here me out.

My friend and I were thinking about BlackJack the other day, and I think we found a way to always make money in BlackJack.

Ok, it's very simple. Let's say you enter a Casino with $1000. You join a BlackJack table, and on the first hand, you bet $10. Let's say you lose. The second hand, you bet $20, double what your first hand was. Let's say you lose again. On the third hand, you double your bet again, but you win. Now, let's look at how much you lost and how much you won.

$1000 - $10 - $20 - $40 + $80 = $1010

So you're up $10. The basis of this theory is to continue doubling your bet until you finally win.

Now, obviously, this theory is operating under the assumption that eventually you'll beat the dealer or the dealer will bust. Also, it doesn't account for splitting or double down. But from what I can tell, as long as you continually double your bet from the last hand, you'll always come out ahead by exactly what your first bet was.

Am I missing an obvious rule here, or would this actually work?

MrPaul · 2004-09-13, 05:23 PM

What if you always lose?

Infernus · 2004-09-13, 05:23 PM

While on the plane to orlando we watched the TV... they have like this special Dateline program and they did a report on stuff like this. While it isn't illegal it will get you kicked out of any casino.

ChewyLSB · 2004-09-13, 05:28 PM

Constantly doubling your bet will get you kicked out of a casino? It doesn't even involve stuff like card counting (I saw the History Channel special on the MIT Blackjack Team), and I understand what you can and can't get kicked out by casino's, and I don't see anything here that would get you kicked out by casino's.

And MrPaul, statistically speaking, I'm sure you're going to eventually win. I understand losing streaks and all.

Red October · 2004-09-13, 05:36 PM

A friend of mine and I know about that method and have tried it at home and on electronic games. Works very well. But just some info:

1) Usually casino's have a table limit. Example: $5 Min/$500 Max. This is designed specifically for that method...which I'll get into on #3

2) Its very easy to spot, hence the casino will give you the boot...maybe

3) I did a probability analysis on it some time ago. Don't remeber the exact numbers, but it will eventually fail. Just to give you an example: Lets say the probility of losing consecutively is low. But every hand you play increases that probility. So if its only a 1% chance that you will lose consecutively up to the table limit, its 2% after that next hand, and then 4%, then 8%, etc. Bottom line, if you get greedy, your greed will come back and bite you in the ass. If you don't, the casino will make note, and kick your ass out on the Las Vegas Strip.

Doppler · 2004-09-13, 06:18 PM

Any establishment can refuse service to any person for any reason short of race/sex etc etc.

So yes they can kick you to the curb.

Diviant · 2004-09-13, 06:24 PM

Most casino's have this "If they have a system, we want them here" thing. They want you to come in thinking you've got a fool proof method so they can clean you out.

Biohazzard56 · 2004-09-13, 06:32 PM

Gambling is stupid.

JetRaiden · 2004-09-13, 06:37 PM

hmm....Ill be sure to try that when I turn 21 in 3 years...

Red October · 2004-09-13, 06:38 PM

Originally Posted by Diviant

Most casino's have this "If they have a system, we want them here" thing. They want you to come in thinking you've got a fool proof method so they can clean you out.

Unless that system actually works, such as counting cards. You will most certainly be kicked out to the curb and told to go watch "O" or Blue Man Group.

Jaged · 2004-09-13, 06:46 PM

Wait, a casino will kick you out if you are playing by all the rules and not doing anything against the rules if you use this system? wtf?

JetRaiden · 2004-09-13, 06:50 PM

Originally Posted by Jaged

Wait, a casino will kick you out if you are playing by all the rules and not doing anything against the rules if you use this system? wtf?

yea trust me. when I was in the DR I was barely old enough to gamble. But when I won $100 at the roulette table some guy came over to "congratulate" me. if you win at the casino, they will start watching your every move.

Angel_of_Death · 2004-09-13, 08:04 PM

Originally Posted by Biohazzard56

Gambling is stupid.

I take that as a personal offense. Gambling is the funnest and most entertaining thing I have ever done. As soon as I'm old enough I'm hitting the casinos. Until then, I'll settle for these smaller bets and pools.

UncleDynamite · 2004-09-13, 08:37 PM

Your theory operates under simple probability, which may seem fundamentally sound. However, you forget that while it may work with a simply probability game such as dice, it eventually will fail with a strategy game like Blackjack.

But first consider this: if you double your bet each time, your $1000 is going to be gone very quickly. If your initial bet is $10, you'll be able to bet a mere 6 times. First bet for $10, second bet for $20, third for $40, fourth for $80, fifth for $160, and sixth for $320. If you lose your sixth bet, you're down to $370, and therefore cannot make a $640 bet. Six attempts isn't very much.

Now, even if you had more money to play with, your system is highly inefficient. For example, if I did what you did in your example and ended up with $1010, that's a mere 1% gain over my original $1000. Sure, you can keep plugging away and eventually your small gains will add up, but at that point you've chosen to earn money in the smallest amount and in the slowest way possible. So while you might have a "no-lose" strategy, it's also a "hardly-any-wins" strategy as well.

Finally, Blackjack is a game that awards strategy. An average player placing a few smart bets that return more than twice the bet will likely earn more than a player simply using a probability betting strategy. Plus, in blackjack, you always get a new hand each round, so that complicates the probability numerous times over. If you were rolling dice and the rules were, "All odd numbers win, all even numbers lose," the yes, doubling your bet each time will eventually result in a small gain. However, in Blackjack, the cars introduce so many variables that you'll have to at least make some sort of playing decision in order to have any sort of chance of winning. And if you have to make playing decisions, you might as well use that chance to make the right decisions and win more.

Madcow · 2004-09-13, 08:58 PM

UncleDynamite has laid out the fundamental flaw (along with the table limit). I had a friend in college who played a similar system, although it was slightly modified and he would come back with at least $500 every time. Then again, I had another friend who played no system and on 3 separate occasions in college came back with over $5000. Personally, I'll stick with the poker tables as it's the only place you can sit down where the house has no stake in whether you personally win or lose. You just have to be good enough to make more than they rake, and that's pretty easy to do.