3-Way battle simulator

[Kipper]

I wanted to guage how a 3 way battle might turn out on a roughly square continent, so I built a simulator. Check it out here:

http://www.planetside-stats.com/simulator

This doesn't take into account footholds, facilities, resource values or behind-the-lines, but what it does take into account is:

1. Each empire will take one hex per tick
2. A hex should only be able to change hands once per tick.
3. An Empire cannot take a hex it has no connections to
4. Empires will strongly favour (but not always go for) hexes they have most connections to.
5. Empires will favour (but not always go for) empty hexes over enemy hexes (resources without a fight).
6. Empires will fight any other empire, they don't gang up, their target is basically random, but weighted towards the above rules.

You should notice that empires will broadly stay in their own regions, but not exclusively, an empire can lose its home region but continue elsewhere.

I might add the notion of footholds to see if that changes how the front lines move around - I wanted to test a theory that empire locations won't change as much if footholds(starting hexes) are uncapturable.

I would be happy to release the code for this simulator to anyone that wants it, to expand on it - its in PHP/JQuery and just uses sessions - no databases etc.

Discuss!

PS. Please don't abuse my webserver! Run it for a bit, then turn it off, no leaving your comp running all night seeing what will happen - because what will happen is I will remove the page... thank you!

[Sirisian]

Originally Posted by Kipper

Discuss!

PS. Please don't abuse my webserver! Run it for a bit, then turn it off, no leaving your comp running all night seeing what will happen - because what will happen is I will remove the page... thank you!

Discuss? I think you need to learn Javascript.

// edit woah I apparently got owned for this comment. It was a programming joke. Not meant to be taken offensively. My bad.

[Kipper]

Originally Posted by Sirisian

Discuss? I think you need to learn Javascript.

Some people are just born with a negative attitude...

I could have done it exclusively in JS but it just would have taken longer, I got somewhat carried away doing this as it was...... Feel free to spend your day creating something better!

[arclegger]

That is pretty cool!

You should put some rules in there for 2empiresVS1empire.

Maybe let us fill out the squares (edit, hexes ) first, set the faction % and then run the simulator and see what happens.

Great stuff.

[WellWisherELF]

Nice app. I've got a couple suggestions.

Each empire shouldn't be guaranteed to take a hex every tick. Have the chance of succesfully capturing a hex be in proportion to how much surface area the empire has to enemy hexes.
ex: Red is more likely to win a battle if it's on its last remaining 1-2 hexes, and less likely to take a territory if it's managing fronts on 15-16 hexes.

Also, each empire should have a small chance to take back their starting hex, if safehavens work the way we speculate they do.

[Zulthus]

This is pretty cool. You should implement arclegger's suggestions to make it even better. I sure as hell can't code at all, so nice job

Originally Posted by Sirisian

Discuss? I think you need to learn Javascript.

Seriously dude. Do it yourself, until then, don't be a dick.

[Mightymouser]

This is pretty cool! Though I notice when an empire loses a hex, that hex's target priority stays pretty low for awhile, and they rarely take it back. I think it might be a little more realistic if when an empire loses a hex, that hex, and those around it have a higher priority, rather than a lower priority; to simulate the fact that the empire's forces are (presumably) focused on that area.

Still; a cool concept! I'd be interested in seeing the source, if you upload it somewhere

[Whalenator]

Originally Posted by Zulthus

Seriously dude. Do it yourself, until then, don't be a dick.

Sirisian works in the video game industry.
He's also a dick.

On a more related note it's a great try. As previously stated writing this in JavaScript (or maybe making your own Flash Applet -- Hint hint) would be helpful. If there's anything I REALLY found disturbing though, it's that this should really be a triangle. For simulation purposes. Also as previously stated add more weights to already existing probabilities of an empire capturing a specific tile... maybe adding a background layer that shows an example continent (with low opacity of course)

That is, if you plan to get serious with this simulator. If you really get complicated, and get more experienced coders in to help, you could hundreds of commanders coming in twice a day each to test something out. Awesome concept

[FINALCUT]

I noticed a lot of hexes getting cut off from friendly forces. That will make for some awesome fights. Trying to fight your way out of a cut off hex back to link up with friendlies. Read up on the German sixth army in Russia during WWII. Some of the most fierce fighting the World has ever seen due to them being cut off and desperatley trying to fight thier way out of the pocket. Can't wait for a battle like that. Gonna be awesome.

[CutterJohn]

Originally Posted by Kipper

3. An Empire cannot take a hex it has no connections to

This rule is invalid. There is nothing preventing you from taking a base you have no connections too. Its supposed to be difficult though, so should be weighted suitably low.

[Atuday]

You people seem to forget the fact that an empire can take territories behind enemy lines. The battle line is not where you must take things its just where it would be fastest for capture speed for you. It might not be fastest though because of enemy trying the same thing.

--EDIT--
Holy crap you did put that in... I have underestimated you good sir.

[Hamma]

Pretty cool! I'm sure it's pretty similar to how we will see things play out.

Originally Posted by Sirisian

Discuss? I think you need to learn Javascript.

Really? You need to take a few steps back and think before posting drivel like this. Either reply constructively or don't reply.

[Malorn]

This is an interesting simulator but it is a little too simple to be effective.

It's basically showing a blob expand and contract.

Assuming all terrain is equal (which it isn't and is a huge missing factor), and assuming facility and outpost proximity is equal (which it isn't and is a huge missing factor), the key things missing are...

1) 2v1. You assume that empires don't double-team. That's a poor assumption. They do double-team and it is often a deciding factor on where to attack. The best way to gain territory and secure resources is to attack an enemy who is otherwise engaged.
- You can sort of factor this in by putting higher priority on all enemy faction hexes for a faction that just lost a tile to another faction. Kick 'em when they're down. it's what people do, and PS2 players will do.

2) Uneven/Fluxuating population. It changes all the time and it isn't always even.
- You can simulate this by increasing or decreasing player pop for an empire randomly each "tick" It's probably easier to randomly choose an empire to adjust each tick than try to change all three simultaneously.
- If you want to be clever you can decrease population after a faction loses several tiles in a short tick span to simulate morale loss. And the converse for several victories.

3) Empires don't always gain territory every round. Sometimes they just lose it. Sometimes they gain several territories at once.
- You might be able to help simulate this by randomly choosing each turn whether an empire gains a territory.
- Use population differentials to weight the gain. If an empire has lower pop, it is less likely to gain territory against one of the other empires. If it has a positive differential then it will be more likely to gain multiple hexes.


If we want a meaningful simulator it needs to factor in quite a bit more, though it is a cool concept to try to simulate.

The sad truth is is that people do double-team, population matters, and that when people lose too much they give up, log, or go to another continent. And they seldom leave a winning fight.

[CyclesMcHurtz]

Originally Posted by Kipper

I wanted to guage how a 3 way battle might turn out on a roughly square continent, so I built a simulator. Check it out here:

http://www.planetside-stats.com/simulator

... (and other stuff above) ...

Hey, that's pretty neat! I'd especially be entranced if you added some other complex features and a scalable map. I've always had a soft-spot in my coder-heart (is that a hard drive or an SSD?) for life- and other similar simulations.

[NCLynx]

Looks pretty cool. Keep it up and get that site in tip-top shape before Beta